Chance of Success and Plan Health
We run 500 simulations based on your plan's projected cash flow, return and volatility assumptions — also known as a Monte Carlo simulation. Your chance of success is the percentage of these simulations in which you successfully make it to longevity age without running out of money.
The Plan Health chart shows your projected savings balances over time compared with a downside risk scenario.
What am I looking at?
At NewRetirement, we examine your plan in multiple ways, including plan projections as well as Monte Carlo analysis.
The Projected Savings is a linear projection based on your plan inputs. Most of the charts you see throughout the app are based on plan projections. The savings balances here will match the balances in the net worth chart lower on the dashboard.
Monte Carlo analysis is a statistical technique where we run multiple projections, randomly varying asset returns and inflation rates based on your growth rates and a normal distribution. We run 500 of these simulations and use the results to generate the probability of plan success. The 'Poor Outcome' you see here represents the 10th percentile of these simulations - or in other words, 90% of the simulations did as well or better than what you see here.
Income vs Expenses
The Income vs Expense graph on your Overview is a NewRetirement calculation intended to provide a high level view of your plan. It's based on an average calculation from retirement age through longevity age and a 4% withdrawal from your assets. We are not applying a drawdown of your accounts, these numbers are provided as a means of assessing your standings and also form the basis of your Income Score.
Your estimated average retirement income is based on your earnings from Work, Passive, Social Security, Annuity and Pension sources from retirement age to longevity age plus a “safe” 4% savings drawdown rate. This does included any RMDs represented in your plan. The amount is shown in today’s dollars.
Your estimated average retirement expenses are based on the expenses you enter in your plan, under the inflation assumptions in your plan, and the other items we calculate such as income taxes and IRMAA given your plan specifics such as marital status, savings drawdowns, and deductible expenses.
If you're wondering how to see the annual details of your expenses, head over to Insights > Income and Expenses > Estimated Expenses
We are not applying a 4% drawdown of your accounts.
The numbers in the Income vs Expenses Chart on your Overview are provided as a means of assessing your standings. The Income vs Expenses Chart is a NewRetirement calculation intended to provide a high level view of your plan. It's based on an average calculation from retirement age through longevity age and a 4% withdrawal from your assets.
What is the 4% rule?
In 1994, financial advisor William Bengen published a paper stating that retirees could withdraw 4% of their retirement savings in the first year of retirement, adjust the annual withdraws by the rate of inflation, and safely retire without concerns that they would run out of money. Using historical data on stock and bond returns over the 50-year period from 1926 to 1976, and a portfolio invested 50% in stocks (the S&P 500) and 50% in bonds, Bengen determined that most retirement portfolios would last at least 30 years. And, in many cases the portfolios lasted for 50 years or more.
Your Net Worth is the total value of your assets minus your debts. This chart allows you to view changes to your Net Worth over time and provides a great overall view of your progress towards any legacy goals.
Our Digital Coach constantly runs your plan against a series of rules and provides personal recommendations just for you. It's like a financial advisor is looking over your plan, checking your data, and making sure that you don’t miss any opportunities!
Your Overview may also include a couple of nudges from our AI. If we determine that your plan could benefit from a new Social Security or Roth Conversion strategy, we'll let you know. Look for these on your Overview and head over to our Explorers to learn how you can do better.
Our team uses the Chat to communicate with you, and we encourage you to use the Chat to communicate with us. Use the Chat to search for articles, ask for help, submit bugs, or make feature suggestions. Our team is here to help! If the Chat is in your way, please see this article to get the Chat off your screen.
The Assumptions Tab allows you to toggle between inflation and return rates, our 3 budgets, and our 3 withdrawal strategies in order to assess your plan through multiple perspectives.